Ever.Ag’s latest Global Dairy Directions outlook shows milk production remains strong, but demand and commodity prices continue to shift.
In the United States, the dairy herd is at a multi-decade high. Strong producer margins and more cows are expected to support further milk production, keeping global supply well stocked.
Across Europe, milk output remains ahead of expectations, although recent heatwaves are expected to slow production later in the year.
New Zealand faces a more uncertain outlook. Higher input costs and the prospect of a “super” El Niño could constrain production as the season progresses.
On the demand side, the picture is more encouraging.
Global dairy trade volumes continue to grow, with April Milk Solids Equivalent (MSE) trade up almost 13 per cent on last year. China has returned to the market for whole milk powder, while cheese, butter and skim milk powder have all surprised on the upside.
But markets remain volatile.
The latest Global Dairy Trade auction recorded its third consecutive decline, with the overall index falling 4.9 per cent as increased product availability outweighed stronger buying from Southeast Asia.
Whole milk powder, skim milk powder, butter and cheddar all softened, with average cheese prices falling to their lowest level since October 2023.
This is the global market Australian dairy competes in.
It’s also why the industry created the Milk Value Portal – providing farmers, processors, service providers, policymakers and market observers with independent insights into the global market forces influencing Australian dairy.
More: milkvalue.com.au
Media Releases | 10 Jul 2026
Policy Papers and Submissions | 10 Jul 2026