Insights report finds: Global dairy market fundamentals weaken

The Q3 Dairy Market Insights report completed by FreshAgenda and released this week has found:

• Global dairy market fundamentals have weakened during the September quarter, with stronger than expected European milk growth.
• High butter prices for much of 2025 has limited exports and encouraged imports, leading to a rapid build-up of EU butter stocks.
• Reduced EU butterfat value has rapidly reduced EU cheese prices. This has narrowed the price gap on US exporters who had gained market share thanks to significantly lower prices as new cheese production capacity fills.
• The NZ production season has had a record start, with milk production buoyed by good pasture conditions and a second year of strong milk prices.
• Increased US competition has, and tighter local supply reduced Australia’s cheese exports over the quarter, while US imports of butter and cheese increased.
• While a few companies have announced step-ups, the outlook suggests limited upside for Australian farmgate milk prices. Growing competition in domestic and export markets likely as more US cheese become available.
• Indicators of increased cow culling and continued dry conditions in southern regions suggest 2025/26 Australian milk production is likely to be below the prior season, estimated by about 1.9%.

Global dairy market consultancy Freshagenda produces a quarterly insights report that draws from an “add up” of global market, as well as an overview of the “hot items” influencing commodity prices and milk prices.

Freshagenda provides their view on the short to medium term outlook for farmgate milk values and prices based on the influences on the commodity value of milk.

More: Q3 Report 2025

More: Milk Value Portal